Tag: product mix
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Top 3 Survival Tips for Manufacturing
1. Have visibility into what is selling
2. Streamline your product offering based on sales
3. Customize your supply chain to your product offering and demand signal (Read as “educate the supply chain of the product based on sales”)
A manufacturing operation that is disconnected from sales is bound to have high inventory and poor capital utilization – both being extremely detrimental to profitability. continue reading »
How Fat is Your Supply Chain?
An overwhelming number of products today fit into one of these two categories: configurable products or products with a fixed bill of materials (BOM). Configurable products are also called Dynamic Configurations. Fixed bill of material products are also called Static Configurations (typically for off the shelf products like pencils, shampoo, etc).
Companies offer configurable products to allow customers the luxury of mixing and matching feature choices in order to customize the products they want to buy. continue reading »
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Gartner: Cloud computing, Analytics Top 2010 Strategic Tech List …
Cloud computing and analytics have jumped front and center. Gartner renamed Business Intelligence (BI) to Analytics.
On the analytics front, Gartner said in a presentation: “We have reached the point in the improvement of performance and costs that we can afford to perform analytics and simulation for each and every action taken in the business. Not only will data center systems be able to do this, but mobile devices will have access to data and enough capability to perform analytics themselves, potentially enabling use of optimization and simulation everywhere and every time. This can be viewed as a third step in supporting operational business decisions.”
Analytics named as the #2 most important category, behind Cloud Computing
Gartner names analytics as the #2 most important category, only behind Cloud Computing. Analytics is becoming more important to all aspects of every business.
So what is analytics? It is purposeful focus on data. It requires mathematical analysis and algorithms on data, to compute Key Performance Indicators (KPI) that are valuable to measure the condition of the business.
Emcien offers analytics to detect product-buying patters with a focus to improve product mix and profitability. As product choices and market segments have grown to dizzying levels, companies struggle to have a finger on the pulse of their product mix, markets and profitability. What products are making money? What are customers buying? What are popular choice combinations? What is common across the market segments? What are the trends by market segment? What product choices should we offer?
Emcien’s analytics answers these questions with patented mathematical algorithms applied to sales data. Emcien’s analytics auto-detects what choices combinations customers are buying, the trends and which choice combinations are profitable. The product offering is the lifeblood of a company. At Emcien we equate product mix and choice mix to profit. If your product mix is not aligned with what customers are buying, you will not make profits. It is as simple as that!
Emcien’s analytics is built on sales data. Unlike web analytics, where is data is a bear, getting sales data is a relatively easy. This is usually the best quality data compared to anything else. The sales data is a true capture of the voice of the customer. It allows companies to see what customers are spending their money on. The value of Emcien’s analytics is visibility into customer choices, and more importantly, recommendations to increase profitability.
Analytics are very powerful as the data reveals Key Performance Indicators that offer continuous insight into the business. You can dispel a lot of beliefs that the company has based on gut feel and cooler talk. When you provide actual sales data driven insight, it has a profound positive impact on the company and the decisions. To convert analytics to action select KPI’s that are a part of your business process and budgeting process. This is key to showing improvement that is meaningful to the organization. As analytics gets more visibility in the C-suite, there is demand to produce KPIs that executives are measured on. This will help gain buy-in at executive levels as adoption of analytics grows.
Customer Buying Patterns – What you can learn From Pizza Sales
There are 1,140 ways of ordering a pizza with 3-toppings, if the pizza offers 20 choices
First order take rates tell us about the relative popularity of different options. For example, consider a small set of possible pizza toppings.
|
Topping |
Take Rate |
|
Pepperoni |
40% |
|
Mushrooms |
20% |
|
Pineapple |
3% |
|
Canadian Bacon |
3% |
|
Green Peppers |
10% |
Customer buying patterns really start with second order take rates, which tell us about pairs of options, or toppings. Second order take rates tell us about relative popularity, but they also reveal something deeper: dependence. If you know that a pizza has pineapple on it, there is a very good chance that it also has Canadian bacon. This is dependence. In this case the reason is that there is a widely known “Hawaiian Pizza” that has both of these toppings. In general, customers don’t flip coins or roll dice. They select options that “hang together” in some way. The patterns can be seen in the combined take rates. Let me illustrate with three examples that are contrived to illustrate some important points. First consider pepperoni and mushrooms together.
|
|
|
Mushrooms |
|
|
|
|
No |
Yes |
|
Pepperoni |
No |
18% |
12% |
|
Yes |
32% |
8% |
|
In this table you can see that pepperoni has a 40% take rate, since 32% of pizzas have pepperoni without mushrooms, and 8% have pepperoni with mushrooms. In the same way, 20% have mushrooms, because 12% have mushrooms without pepperoni and 8% have mushrooms with pepperoni. This illustrates the first law of second order take rates: the first order take rates must be preserved. But this table contains no new information. Customers are apparently ordering pepperoni and mushrooms independently. This is revealed by the fact that 8% is exactly 20% of 40%. Knowing that a pizza has pepperoni does not give us any clue about whether or not it has mushrooms. Similarly, knowing that it has mushrooms is useless in guessing if it has pepperoni.
As a second example, consider the two toppings that are on every Hawaiian pizza: pineapple and Canadian bacon.
|
|
|
Canadian Bacon |
|
|
|
|
No |
Yes |
|
Pineapple |
No |
97% |
0% |
|
|
Yes |
0% |
3% |
For simplicity, I have made this an example of complete dependence: a pizza has pineapple if and only if it has Canadian bacon. Notice that the first order take rates (3% for each) are preserved.
The third example is the really important one: partial dependence. This is illustrated here by pineapple and green peppers.
|
|
|
Green Peppers |
|
|
|
|
No |
Yes |
|
Pineapple |
No |
89% |
8% |
|
Yes |
1% |
2% |
|
In this case, the first order take rates are also preserved: 3% for pineapple and 10% for green peppers. But these two choices are not independent. The take rate for pineapple and green peppers together is 2%, which is much greater than 10% of 3%, which would be only 0.3%.
Exercise for the reader: show that if we know that the pizza has green peppers, then there is a 20% chance that it has pineapple. (Much greater than its 3% first order take rate.) And if we know that it has pineapple, then there is a whopping 67% chance that it has green peppers!
So second order take rates capture information about how customers are combining toppings, and we can use that information to make predictions.
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Part I: Reporting, Business Intelligence, Data Mining, Analytics: Actionable Tasks!
Software vendors use so many big words and confuse customers. Our customers have often asked us to clarify – so here I go. The definitions in this article are based on research of these terms, and the collective opinion of many of our customers and prospects. Over numerous conversations with our customers and the discussions of the terminology, the clarifications always go back to the origin of the terms and then move on to change in usage. Hence this article folows that flow. I would love your feedback as it is important to help buyers understand this.
Business Reporting
Business Reporting, as the term suggests presents the data from the database in an easy to read format. This originated when business users were frustrated that all the data was locked up in databases. There was a lot of data, but no one could get access to it without calling on IT folks. Hence Business Reporting was born.
Business Intelligence
This is a fancy name for business reporting. Business intelligence (BI) is a broad category of technologies that allows for gathering, storing, accessing and analyzing data to help business users make better decisions. In a 1958 article, IBM researcher Hans Peter Luhn used the term business intelligence. He defined intelligence as: “the ability to apprehend the interrelationships of presented facts in such a way as to guide action towards a desired goal.”
In 1989 Howard Dresner (later a Gartner Group analyst) proposed Business Intelligence as an umbrella term to describe “concepts and methods to improve business decision-making by using fact-based support systems.” Then in the late 1990s the usage became widespread (Remember the Bubble!). Then. everything with any data reporting was called Business Intelligence. So today, Business Intelligence is a glorified term for “Business Reporting”.
Data mining
Simply put, Data mining is hitting the data with all mathematical methods available to a mathematician! The data source can be almost anything – news papers articles, financial reports, sales data, medical data, … . This means that the data can have structure or can be un-structured. And the mathematical methods that can be applied can include neural networks, genetic algorithms, statistics on steroid and anything else they can think of.
One may ask – why are they doing this? What are they mining? Well, the simple answer is that they are mining the data looking for patterns; any patterns that can reveal relationships. So the methods used are varied and the kinds of data that are mined can come from a myriad of sources.
The results of data mining are lots of data! In fact – the result of Business Reporting and BI has been data overload. Now that’s the bad news. In a world of information overload, the last thing that we need is more data. We have less time today than we have ever had before. Business users do not need more data. They need quick conclusions on what the data is saying, converted into actionable tasks. Simply put – “Please tell me what to do”.
… More on the discussion of analytics to action in the next blog.
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The Number of Choice Combinations Depend…
The number of choice combinations depend on which product features are included. The build combinations is the product mix or the marketing mix.
Let’s consider the sales history of our product. There are two very important numbers: the number of units sold and the number of unique configurations. The number of units is well defined, but the number of unique configurations is ambiguous. The ambiguity comes from the fact that there will be more unique configurations if we use more features, especially soft features, to describe our product.
One very special soft feature is a Serial Number, or VIN (Vehicle Identification Number). The whole purpose of the Serial Number is to make each instance of the product unique. So if we look at our sales history and include Serial Number, we will see that the number of unique configurations is exactly the same as the number of units of the product (instances).
If we want to begin to understand the demand for our product we have to see which instances are actually the same. That means we have to get rid of the Serial Numbers. When we do, the instances collapse into groups of now unique configurations; that is, unique without Serial Number.
If we are interested in the tangible features of the product, then we may want to take out other soft features as well. Geographic region is important for some purposes, but may be a distraction when we are interested in the physical product. Taking out the geographic region feature will cause another reduction in the number of unique configurations. The red, V8, convertible in Florida will get combined with the red, V8, convertible in New York.
Sometimes we are interested in the variants of our product ignoring color. We know that every real variant is going to come in several colors, but we want to look at the product without the distraction of color. This is sometimes called the “body in white”. So the red, V8, convertible and the green, V8, convertible collapse into the V8, convertible.
The point I am making is that the number of unique configurations depends on which features are included, and this number drops whenever a feature is taken away. Mathematically, this is called “projecting out the feature”.
The number of unique configurations is at most the number of units sold, and at a minimum it is just one. If we take away all of the features, then every unit looks the same, which means just one configuration. There is a path from one extreme to the other that we will introduce next time.
By the way – understanding this is important as product complexity is a key driver of process complexity.
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How I want to buy a car
Every five or so years, I shop for a new car. I hate car shopping. The haggling, the long trips to dealerships way outside of town, the hours and hours of waiting, punctuated by furtive whispers to my husband, “Don’t give in! Stick to our budget! But don’t tell them our budget!” and similar. But that’s toward the end of the process. There’s a lot of work leading up to it.
First I hit the Consumer Reports site to research cars. A subscription is just $5.95 a month, but it auto-renews so you have to remember to unsubscribe or it quietly chips away at your wallet forever.
I find the five safest vehicles according to my car type and year. When I say new car, I just mean it’s new to me. I like to benefit from someone else’s new-car depreciation, which is something like 25% the minute you drive off the lot.
Anyway, I get on several different car sites like CarsDirect.com and AutoTrader.com to look for my next set of wheels. First I have to pick make and model, then enter my ZIP Code, then there’s a long list of cars. If I want to, I can see the list from lowest price to highest. The trouble is, I want to compare five different models and several different years. I’ve got to select the same filters over and over for all five and then compare the info. continue reading »
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Shopping for a new monitor
I do a lot of work from home. My office has a huge picture window, a desk and my laptop. As a system administrator, I often read long log files or wade through large amounts of data; sometimes I need to work from an online reference as I’m tweaking system settings on my servers. A big monitor really helps with this, so last weekend I went off in search of the Right One for my office.
I started with some online searches to establish a baseline price for my budget. I really don’t like buying monitors online, though, because the picture quality from model to model can vary widely and it’s something that I like to see firsthand. So, wife in tow (to tell me when I’m going overboard – I do get excited about new hardware at times), we head to the local shopping extravaganza to look for monitors.
I settled on a few things I was looking for: size (the bigger, the better), resolution and contrast ratio. I do enough image editing for website tasks that picture quality matters, but not enough that I care about color correctness, so I just want a good, solid, clear picture. I’m not gaming, so I don’t care about super-fast update times, just a clear picture that makes log files and code easy to read. I’ve found that by clearly stating your priorities, it’s a lot easier to compare similar products and make a satisfying decision on which thing it is you’re going to buy. With these goals in mind, I found a few possible candidates:
- 22″ Acer, reasonable resolution, poor contrast ratio: $159
- 23″ Samsung, reasonable resolution, excellent contrast ratio: $209
- 28″ Viewsonic, fair CR, good resolution: $549
- 26″ Samsung, good resolution, good CR: $399 (with $100 rebate, so $299 if the rebate works)
- 24″ Dell, good resolution, good CR: $279
I settled on the 26″ Samsung. The price was fair. Although more than I had originally wanted to spend, it was a great deal – and even better if the rebate comes through. The picture was superb, and it sure does make working at home even nicer than before.
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Q&A with Mark Gottfredson, Bain & Company
In today’s post, we talk to Mark Gottfredson about product complexity and customer choice.
Emcien: It’s natural for companies to add products and features to keep customers happy. What are the downfalls?
MG: The challenge of adding complexity is it’s the most natural thing in the world. Marketing comes up with new ideas for products or configurations to get the next bit of market share or a little bit more share of wallet. But most companies aren’t so good at retiring products; they don’t have a similarly robust process for taking things out of the catalog that no longer sell, or sell only small amounts. They don’t do a good job of balancing.
Most decisions we make are based on incremental economics. Each decision makes sense in its own right, but the costs of complexity tend to grow systemically. You can’t tie them to a single product decision. Take tinted windshields, for example, that you can sell as an option for $120 and 40% of customers will buy. Assuming the costs of tinting the windshield including inventory impacts, etc., are $9, it will always make sense to add the option. By itself, it is a rational decision, but when coupled with hundreds of other decisions, we end up with dozens of options like power windows, 13 exterior colors, 10 interior colors, 7 different radio and speaker combinations, etc. Eventually, the vehicle can be made in 10 billion different ways, and you don’t know what the next order will be. Since you can’t effectively forecast anymore, you get frustrated and buy a $50 million forecasting module to try to manage all the complexity. You have difficulty balancing your lines, build inventory and increase supply chain costs. Unfortunately, when most companies finally decide to reduce complexity, they “cut off the tail” of low-running options or SKUs. But they don’t remove the systemic costs, and they don’t see any benefits.
Emcien: Companies often overestimate the value buyers place on having many choices. What are the downsides?
MG: Go to a banking website like Citibank or Bank of America. The site describes itself as a full-service bank that has all the items you could want. There are long lists of products like credit cards with different reward programs, as if to say, “We have a lot of products. Surely there’s one here for you. Good luck finding it.” High complexity is a priori evidence that you don’t know what your customers want.
Emcien: When do fewer choices mean higher sales?
MG: When you understand customers. Dell understands customers well. Dell’s website is Spartan; there are just a few choices. If you choose a desktop, up pops three computers: high, medium and low cost. These three configurations are what your segment – home, professional, government – wants. You can customize each one, but you’ll make it as expensive as the next higher model, so then you switch to that and you’re still buying a standard configuration. Every time I have seen complexity reduction done right, sales have increased.
Emcien: How do overoptimistic sales expectations help to spread complexity?
MG: What happens is sales looks for a gimmick that gets them the next sale. Many manufacturers think whatever’s thrown over the wall from product management and sales must be good to go. And sales thinks more is better! Engineers love to engineer; they’ll give you complexity. Most firms build complexity systematically into operations, and then they build systems to handle the complexity, and that’s high cost.
Companies should think about what business would be like with a zero-complexity baseline – how they would operate if they offered just one product or service. The purpose of zero-based thinking isn’t to eradicate complexity; it’s an exercise to reimagine the business with the optimum amount of complexity.
Mark Gottfredson is a director of Bain & Company’s office in Dallas, Texas, which he founded in 1990. Over the past 26 years, he has advised chief executives and top-level managers in a wide range of industries. Currently, he serves as the Global Head of Bain’s Performance Improvement Practice and is also a leader in the firm’s business strategy, airline, financial services, manufacturing and energy practices.
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Arm your salespeople to make the sale
I was talking to an executive at Oracle, and he told me that CRM is entering a new phase. Salespeople are the revenue generators of a company. Current CRM tools have served the purpose of helping salespeople organize their customers’ contacts and manage the sales process and pipeline, but this isn’t enough.
Your salespeople are representing and selling your product. Customers who want to buy your product typically list a few things they want and look to the salesperson to guide them. The salesperson is their advisor on your product offering. The salesperson is expected to know the product and suggest good choices for the customer. Is your salesperson equipped to do that?
There was a time when life was simpler and products were simpler. The customer said, “I want a 17″ TV.” The salesperson could look at what he had stocked and reply, “I have a 19″ I can give you for the same price.” Wow! Done!
Today, even the best salespeople don’t stay at one job for long. They move, selling what sells. Training sales newbies on a product is a big challenge for companies, and the cost of the salesperson not knowing the product he’s selling is VERY HIGH. As many as four out of five quotes are lost because customers weren’t guided to a good product selection. You can fill this gap by arming your salespeople with tools and product knowledge that will help them advise customers effectively on your product. Your company needs salespeople to have that capability so you can make money on the stuff they sell!
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