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Does Your Inventory Look Like Jurrasic Park?
Does Your Inventory Look Like Jurrasic Park?
I was working with a industrial manufacturer who made construction equipment, such as diggers and backhoes. They had a beautiful park-like setting around their factory. Artfully placed on manicured lawns around the ponds and fountains were quite a few backhoes . It reminded me of Jurassic Park. We discovered later that these backhoes were a lot like the dinosaurs – they had failed to adapt.
The backhoes in the park, though attractively displayed, were really just inventory. Those particular backhoes were there because they hadn’t sold. We soon understood why. The backhoe had about 40 features that the customer could choose. One of these features was a cup holder for the driver’s cab. There were two options: a stationary cup holder and a rotating cup holder that could be stowed under the dashboard. If a customer order matched a unit on the lot EXACTLY, except for the cup holder, then their inventory control system treated the two configurations as different. A whole new backhoe was scheduled and built, while the one with the wrong cup holder continued to sit on the lot, exposed to wind and rain and interest charges. Now, probably they should not have had two different cup holders in the first place. But if they did, the cost of giving away a rotating cup holder instead of a stationary one (about $20) was much smaller than all of the costs involved in building a whole new backhoe. And if the customer wanted a rotating one, he could probably have been persuaded to accept a stationary one today instead of waiting 3 weeks to get exactly what he wanted.
Two different configurations of a complex product might be “almost the same”, or “very similar”, or “quite different”, or “far apart”. Can we quantify these common sense terms? Surely two configurations that differ only on a cup holder, out of 40 features, are “almost the same”. If we can measure closeness, then we can see when a configuration in stock is “close enough” to what a customer wants.
For two configurations to be close to each other, there shouldn’t be too many features with different choices. Furthermore, some features are more important than others. In a backhoe, the engine, hydraulics, and buckets are very important. The cab is quite important. The cup holder is not so important. So two configurations are close to each other if they differ on a small number of features that are not very important.
The criteria for what is important can be based on knowledge about the product and what it is used for, and also on the cost in relation to other features. So “close enough” depends on how many features are different and how important those features are,. There might also be a probability of acceptance that depends on how many features are different. This can all be formalized, and we can compute a number that represents the closeness. If we can measure closeness, then we can automate the matching of orders and inventory in a much more nuanced way than “the same” or “not the same”. For complex products that are built to stock as well as built to order, this can substantially reduce inventory holding costs by keeping the inventory moving. This is the key to inventory optimization.
Each of those backhoes in the park had a story to tell. Stories like: “I could have been sold in October of 2007, but I didn’t have the rotating cup holder. Or in January of 2008, but I had flip-guard feet instead of street-guard feet.
Someday my perfect order will come, I know it will.”
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Self-Service simplifies Product Offerings and increases Margins
Self service is a term we all know, such as pay-at-the-pump gas and self-checkout stations at some grocery stores, and now more obscure things like video game kiosks by GameFly, but the true tidal wave of self-service hasn’t even started, and it’s going to be good for both the consumer and the manufacturer, if done right.
Self Service Grocery Scanner
When you checkout your soda and cereal by swiping products across a scanner at the auto-checkout stations, there isn’t much complexity other than when you get a problem with the scanner reading a smudged bar code or trying to locate the button for ‘snap beans’ when you put those on the scale. The transaction is smooth, quick and you are in control, which is a good feeling as a buyer, you are not being sold, you are buying just what you want, quickly and easily.
But what happens if you try to buy a “configurable product“? In the grocery store, the only thing configurable is the weight of produce, but other than that, the costs and configurations are set in stone and are detected by reading the bar codes. Easy to understand as the buyer and relatively easy to deal with as the seller. Configurable products are those where you have to make many choices before you can order the one product. Products like computers, cars and thousands of others where the buyer has to describe their preferences or choices so the product can be created and delivered. It’s even more complex in a B2B environment than it is in B2C, where the products available and choices are astronomical. Products like Lighting, Valves, Agriculture and Construction Equipment, Lifts, Electrical equipment, cooking equipment and conveyors have more choices and variants than you can imagine and that variety makes it hard to order, build and deliver efficiently.
Usually a large direct sales force is sent out with complex price books (sometimes online in PDF form) to sit with customers and prospects and help them combine choices in hopefully valid ways. The choices a customer have to make are quite extensive, ranging from tens to hundreds of choices. Most of these choices the customer doesn’t care about, but they are required by the manufacturer just so they can build a valid product. Customers care about the few things that matter to them but after that, they will just choose things that “seem to make sense” just to complete the order. Sometimes they don’t even do that, they get so frustrated with 60 more questions about features and options on the product (many of which they don’t understand) that they walk away.
In some cases companies believe that putting in a configurator is the solution to their problem. Configurator’s automate the order process by ensuring that the order is VALID. The engineering and marketing rules that drive what can be built and offered are setup in a configurator such that the user ordering the product is led through valid questions and end up with a build-able product. Now this product may be build-able but it also may be a one-off low-margin brand new SKU that manufacturing hasn’t built before and requires some parts they aren’t carrying at this time. All this for something that was only 2 choices from a very popular configuration. And those 2 differences only happened because the customer was asked 20 more questions after they entered the 5 things they cared about. They chose as best they could, but without any guidance or suggestions, ended up on a new SKU which will ultimately explode into huge numbers of parts and processes to support the new SKU.
Now if the customer only had to enter the 5 things they cared about and the system recommended the combination of other choices such that the customer’s price limit was met and the configuration wasn’t a new SKU and the SKU had a good margin, then it would have been a win-win for everyone. And the whole process could be complete quickly and easily. The customer wouldn’t have to answer any other questions and would feel that same feeling that you do when you swipe your can of soup across the scanner at the market. The manufacturer wins as well because the customer was guided toward an existing configuration so the cost of creating and supporting a new SKU was avoided. It’s happening now with recommendation engines that leverage buying patterns to suggest full configurations based on the few attributes a customer gives it. Just like Amazon can recommend other books you might want to read based on the current “fly fishing” book you are looking at now, suggestion engines can be utilized to provide this convenience for much more complex products.
That’s the self-service tidal wave that’s coming, when all products, not matter how complicated can be ordered by simply asking for the attributes that YOU care about, what your price limit is and then Voila! it’s done. Customers will order more from companies that offer this convenience. Just think about how often you walk into the gas station to pay as opposed to pay at the pump. And if you had two stations to fill up at, one was pay at the pump and the other required you stand in line after pumping the gas, which do you think you would most often go to? Simplification is good for everyone, and profitable too.
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How I want to buy a car
Every five or so years, I shop for a new car. I hate car shopping. The haggling, the long trips to dealerships way outside of town, the hours and hours of waiting, punctuated by furtive whispers to my husband, “Don’t give in! Stick to our budget! But don’t tell them our budget!” and similar. But that’s toward the end of the process. There’s a lot of work leading up to it.
First I hit the Consumer Reports site to research cars. A subscription is just $5.95 a month, but it auto-renews so you have to remember to unsubscribe or it quietly chips away at your wallet forever.
I find the five safest vehicles according to my car type and year. When I say new car, I just mean it’s new to me. I like to benefit from someone else’s new-car depreciation, which is something like 25% the minute you drive off the lot.
Anyway, I get on several different car sites like CarsDirect.com and AutoTrader.com to look for my next set of wheels. First I have to pick make and model, then enter my ZIP Code, then there’s a long list of cars. If I want to, I can see the list from lowest price to highest. The trouble is, I want to compare five different models and several different years. I’ve got to select the same filters over and over for all five and then compare the info. continue reading »
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Shopping for a new monitor
I do a lot of work from home. My office has a huge picture window, a desk and my laptop. As a system administrator, I often read long log files or wade through large amounts of data; sometimes I need to work from an online reference as I’m tweaking system settings on my servers. A big monitor really helps with this, so last weekend I went off in search of the Right One for my office.
I started with some online searches to establish a baseline price for my budget. I really don’t like buying monitors online, though, because the picture quality from model to model can vary widely and it’s something that I like to see firsthand. So, wife in tow (to tell me when I’m going overboard – I do get excited about new hardware at times), we head to the local shopping extravaganza to look for monitors.
I settled on a few things I was looking for: size (the bigger, the better), resolution and contrast ratio. I do enough image editing for website tasks that picture quality matters, but not enough that I care about color correctness, so I just want a good, solid, clear picture. I’m not gaming, so I don’t care about super-fast update times, just a clear picture that makes log files and code easy to read. I’ve found that by clearly stating your priorities, it’s a lot easier to compare similar products and make a satisfying decision on which thing it is you’re going to buy. With these goals in mind, I found a few possible candidates:
- 22″ Acer, reasonable resolution, poor contrast ratio: $159
- 23″ Samsung, reasonable resolution, excellent contrast ratio: $209
- 28″ Viewsonic, fair CR, good resolution: $549
- 26″ Samsung, good resolution, good CR: $399 (with $100 rebate, so $299 if the rebate works)
- 24″ Dell, good resolution, good CR: $279
I settled on the 26″ Samsung. The price was fair. Although more than I had originally wanted to spend, it was a great deal – and even better if the rebate comes through. The picture was superb, and it sure does make working at home even nicer than before.
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Customer power
What if you could reduce the cost of marketing while giving customers better access to what they really want? Consumer empowerment requires that companies give up some control over product access, promotions and price in exchange for increased consumer responsiveness. See this Q&A with professor Luc Wathieu, Harvard Business School.
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When the tide goes out, it exposes products that were under water
The number of companies with complexity reduction initiatives has skyrocketed. Unlike five years ago, these are serious initiatives with management sponsorship and timelines.
A good friend of mine, who is a salesperson at a Caterpillar dealership, told me that when times are good he can sell any machine. When the times are bad, the bad stuff just sits around exposed.
Companies have proliferated their product offerings – there are almost infinite variations of everything that they offer. The rationale is that they will make one more sale because of that variation. But as product variations grow, the cost structure grows very fast as well, and the probability of finding that one customer who wants the new variation is quite slim. This results in excess inventory across the supply chain. And when the economic tide goes out, it exposes the cost of those product variations.
The companies with complexity reduction initiatives recognize that during good times and bad, managing product variants makes good business sense. Companies are now starting to implement metrics to measure product complexity because we all know that what gets measured gets managed! Product complexity metrics quickly expose underwater products.
The comment by my friend at Caterpillar reminded me of a trip I took to the Bay of Fundy. It is amazing how much is exposed when the tide really goes out, just like in this economy. The good news is that when the tide turns, the bad product lines it once covered will be significantly fewer, resulting in healthier and more competitive companies.
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